WE JOURNALISTS JUST love our year-end lists, don’t we? They are everywhere. However, we don’t do predictions here. They only thing I have found to be certain when trying to predict the future is that nearly all the time, the predictions are wrong.
So instead, here’s our list of 10 open questions heading into 2011.
1. How much market share will the Telus and Bell Canada IPTV services take from incumbent cable companies? The user experience of the Microsoft Mediaroom-driven Optik TV and Fibe TV is just so darn good and so darn integrated (I’d switch just for the whole-home PVR option, if either one was available in my neighborhood) that cable, with its ages-old digital technology in the field, faces an enormous challenge in 2011.
2. Is Netflix overhyped? We’ve played with it via the Wii in the O’Brien household and there’s just not enough there, there, as they say. The library is just too weak for our household to pay for the service. It hasn’t seemed to gain much traction here because it’s roster of content is so thin.
3. Will Hulu.com’s full portal ever be available in Canada? It’s a great way to watch TV online and we use it often Stateside when we travel. But as long as Canadian broadcasters keep paying for exclusive rights in Canada – and now that our three big broadcasters are all (or will be) owned by far-better resourced distributors who want to keep subscribers happy, it’s hard to see Hulu becoming a factor in the Canadian marketplace.
4. Which wireless newcomer won’t make it to 2012? That’s a bit of a harsh assessment, but given the supposed animosity Canadians have towards the three big wireless incumbents, we really thought the newcomers (Wind, Mobilicity, Public Mobile and Videotron) would have gathered more subscribers than they have, even with their limited months in the market. At least one of these companies could be sold before the year is through. The initial penetration rates of the newbies must be giving the likes of Shaw Communications and EastLink (both of whom are launching wireless in early 2011) pause.
5. How quickly will wireless substitution accelerate? This particular metric seems to be the most-watched number among those running wireline telephone companies. Cable had a great run signing up people for its wired telephony offering over the past few years, pulling millions of Canadians away from their incumbent telco but that growth is all but over as people wonder why they need a cell and a land line, when their wireless phone is them.
6. Is cord-cutting real and will the TV system lose thousands of customers in 2011? There are a number of true believers out there who are certain people are leaving cable and satellite in droves, but the numbers don’t prove it out. As noted above, there’s no Hulu here, Netflix is weak and other options for getting around the system, while do-able, aren’t worth the bother for most Canadians who are too busy living their lives to figure out if they can somehow pirate instead of paying for TMN.
7. Will we see a push into exclusive content from our converged broadcaster-distributors? Well, we won’t see Rogers keeping Sportsnet for itself or Bell/CTV demanding crazy concessions from carriers just to get TSN, but I figure we will see some creativity. Perhaps a Sidney Crosby isolation camera just for Bell Mobility customers. Maybe a lot of behind the scenes Toronto Blue Jays programming for Rogers On Demand customers? That’s the sort of content that just might be exclusive.
8. Will the complaints about usage based billing for broadband gain any real traction? Maybe, but as long as the world pays for its use of all other resources (power, water, fuel, food, etc.), network resources should be no exception. As I’ve argued on Twitter: Why is broadband different than hydro? You simply have to pay for what you use.
9. Who will replace Konrad von Finckenstein as CRTC chairman when his mandate expires in January 2012? This will be a hot topic throughout 2011 and is fully dependent on the federal election many are sure will happen in the spring of this year. I wouldn’t dare try to put a list of names together here…
10. Will there be more companies sold in 2011? While many we talk to now assume Maple Leafs Sports & Entertainment will see a change in control, when it comes to other big media companies, unless you have a direct pipeline to the thoughts of the Audet family (Cogeco), Greenberg family (Astral) or Bragg family (EastLink), who’s to say for sure? I mean, any time would be a great time to sell, given the valuations each company would get in an auction, but if there’s no willing seller, there’s no deal. Each business is privately controlled and very profitable, so why sell if they don’t want to?
Let us know what you think of our list – and maybe even what your answers might be in the comment box below or at editorial@cartt.ca. All the best in 2011!
