SAN JOSE – By 2016 mobile data will amount to 130 exabytes annually, 18 times current levels, roughly the amount of data on 33 billion DVDs, reports Cisco Systems in its just released annual five-year forecast for mobile data traffic.
(Ed note: One exabyte = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 Bytes)
According to the Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast wireless data traffic rose 133% in 2011, slightly more than the 131% it anticipated. The sharp increase in mobile traffic is due, in part, to a projected surge in the number of mobile Internet connected devices, which will exceed the number of people on earth by 2016. Over the next five years Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outgrow global fixed data traffic by three times.
The following trends are driving these significant increases says Cisco:
1. More Streamed Content: With the consumer expectations increasingly requiring on-demand or streamed content versus simply downloaded content, mobile cloud traffic will increase, growing 28-fold from 2011 to 2016, a CAGR of 95%.
2. More Mobile Connections: There will be more than 10 billion mobile Internet-connected devices in 2016, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules — exceeding the world's projected population at that time of 7.3 billion.(One M2M application is the use of wireless networks to update digital billboards. This allows advertisers to display different messages based on time of day or day-of-week and allows quick global changes for messages, such as pricing changes for gasoline).
3. Enhanced Computing of Devices: Mobile devices are becoming more powerful and thus able to consume and generate more data traffic. Tablets are a prime example of this trend generating traffic levels that will grow 62-fold from 2011 to 2016 — the highest growth rate of any device category tracked in the forecast. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2016 (1 exabyte per month) will be four times the total amount of monthly global mobile data traffic in 2010.
4. Faster Mobile Speeds: Mobile network connection speed is a key enabler for mobile data traffic growth. More speed means more consumption, and Cisco projects mobile speeds (including 2G, 3G and 4G networks) to increase nine-fold from 2011 to 2016.
5. More Mobile Video: Mobile users want the best experiences they can have and that generally means mobile video, which will comprise 71% of all mobile data traffic by 2016. The Cisco study also projects that 71% of all smartphones and tablets (1.6 billion) could be capable of connecting to an Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) mobile network by 2016. From a broader perspective, 39 % of all global mobile devices (more than 4 billion), could be IPv6-capable by 2016.
Impact of mobile devices/connections
* The increasing number of wireless devices and nodes accessing mobile networks worldwide is the primary contributor to traffic growth. By 2016, there will be more than 8 billion handheld or personal mobile-ready devices and nearly 2 billion machine-to-machine connections, such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors and medical applications for making patient records more readily available.
* Smartphones, laptops and other portable devices will drive about 90% of global mobile data traffic by 2016.
* M2M traffic will represent 5% of 2016 global mobile data traffic while residential broadband mobile gateways will account for the remaining 5% of global mobile data traffic.
Impact of Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
* To address the rise in demand for the mobile Internet, service providers are increasingly looking to offload traffic to fixed/Wi-Fi networks.
* In 2011, 11%, or 72 petabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic was offloaded. By 2016, 22%, or 3.1 exabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.
* Without offloading, the 2011-2016 global mobile data traffic CAGR would be 84% instead of 78%.
* Should all aspects of mobility be taken into consideration, such as cellular traffic, traffic offloaded from cellular networks and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic generated from portable devices, the total amount of mobility traffic would be more than four times the Cisco Mobile VNI forecast's 2016 cellular traffic level.
In 2011, the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic; and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic from portable devices totaled 11.5 exabytes per month:
– Cellular is 5.2% or 597 petabytes per month
– Cellular Offload is 0.6% or 72 petabytes per month
– Fixed/Wi-Fi is 94.2% or 10.9 exabytes per month
– In 2011, fixed/Wi-Fi traffic was more than 18 times greater than cellular traffic.
– In 2015, the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic; and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic from portable devices will total 44.1 exabytes per month:
– Cellular is 16% or 6.9 exabytes per month
– Cellular offload is 4% or 2.0 exabytes per month
– Fixed/Wi-Fi is 80% or 35.2 exabytes per month
– In 2015, Fixed/Wi-Fi traffic will be more than five times greater than cellular traffic.
Key regional growth projections
Following regions are experiencing the greatest growth:
* Middle East and Africa will have the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rate with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 104%, or 36-fold growth.
* Asia-Pacific will have an 84% CAGR, or 21-fold growth.
* Central and Eastern Europe will have an 83% CAGR, or 21-fold growth.
* Latin America will have a 79% CAGR, or 18-fold growth.
* North America will have a 75 % CAGR, or 17-fold growth.
* Western Europe will have a 68 % CAGR, or 14-fold growth.
Impact of faster global mobile network connection speeds
* The average mobile connection speed doubled last year and is expected to increase nine-fold by 2016. Mobile connection speeds are a key factor in supporting and accommodating mobile data traffic growth.
