SAN JOSE, CA – Worldwide mobile data traffic will increase nearly eight-fold over the next five years due to growth in smart devices, mobile video and 4G networks, predicts a new report from Cisco.
According to the Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2015 to 2020), the adoption of mobile devices, increased mobile coverage, and demand for mobile content will drive user growth two times faster than the global population over the next five years.
Smart mobile devices and connections are projected to represent 72% of total mobile devices and connections by 2020, up from 36% in 2015, and smart devices are forecasted to generate 98% of mobile data traffic in that same time period. From an individual device perspective, smartphones are dominating mobile traffic, and will account for 81% of total mobile traffic by 2020 – up from 76% in 2015. The proliferation of mobile phones, including “phablets” (a hybrid blend of smartphone and tablet features), is increasing so rapidly that more people will have mobile phones (5.4 billion) than electricity (5.3 billion), running water (3.5 billion) and cars (2.8 billion) by 2020.
Consumer and business users’ demand for higher video resolution, more bandwidth, and processing speed will spur the use of 4G connected devices, continues the report. 4G connectivity share is projected to surpass 2G by 2018 and 3G by 2020. 4G will represent more than 70% of all mobile traffic, and 4G connections will generate nearly six times more traffic per month than non-4G connections in the next four years.
Other highlights from the report include:
– By 2020, there will be 5.5 billion global mobiles users, up from 4.8 billion in 2015 (a 2.6% CAGR). In North America, that number will increase from 302.2 million to 322.3 million.
– By 2020, there will be more than 11.6 billion mobile connected devices, approximately 1.5 per capita. In North America, that amount is expected to be 2.8 per capita;
– In North America, video will represent 77% of total mobile data traffic by 2020, compared to 61% in 2015;
– By 2020, the average mobile connected end-user device will generate 3.3 GB of mobile traffic per month. In North America, that will increase from 1.3 GB per month in 2015 to 6.0 GB per month.
“With the ever-increasing billions of people and things that are being connected, mobility is the predominant medium that’s enabling today’s global digitization transformation,” said Cisco VP of service provider marketing Doug Webster, in the report’s news release. “Future mobile innovations in cellular, such as 5G, and Wi-Fi solutions will be needed to further address new scale requirements, security concerns, and user demands. IoT advancements will continue to fuel tangible benefits for people, businesses, and societies.”
