IN 1998, A YEAR BEFORE THE CRTC set its last conventional television policy, people of all ages would have thought you a kook if you asked them about "downloading a video", "IM-ing" your friend, charting your MP3s or buying the latest season of Seinfeld on DVD.
Just eight short years ago, instant messaging didn’t exist, there was no online video, nobody had a digital camera, only 1% of Canadians had a DVD player and just 8% knew what broadband was.
These are some of the findings published in a Trend Analysis for the CRTC by Solutions Research Group.
The Commission asked SRG to do a custom analysis of the company’s independent 2006 Fast Forward report on media and technology trends in Canada. What it found was perhaps a little comforting in the short term for broadcasters but downright scary looking longer-term.
In eight years, we’ve gone from 1% of people having a DVD player to 87%. From 8% with broadband to 51%. In 2006, 41% of Internet users – who still only make up 72% of the population – watched an online video of some sort in the last month (the survey was done earlier this year). And while just 8% of Internet users downloaded a TV show in the past month, that’s up from 5% in 2005.
Broken down by age, 16% of Internet users in Canada aged 15 to 29 downloaded a TV show, however.
The survey also showed that Canadians spend 60% of their media time with television (22%), radio (19%) and the Internet (16%). However, while those over 30 spend 49% of their media time with radio and TV, those under 29 spent just 31% of their time with media near a radio or a television set. Music and Internet was a far larger influence at 43%.
"The last 10 years have seen remarkable growth in the penetration of technologies such as PCs, DVD players, broadband and digital television," says the SRG report.
"While it took technologies such as PCs, CD players and VCRs 10 or more years to reach the 50% penetration mark, DVD players and broadband reached the same milestone in much less time (5 and 7 years, respectively). This suggests an accelerated cycle of consumer adoption of new technologies in the past 10 years.
"In the next 5 years, growth will shift to personal digital technologies driven by broadband connectivity – this portable digital technology category includes digital music and video players, ultra-portable PCs, digital cameras, mobile and smart phones and associated content and services," it continues.
"As momentum shifts to personal digital technologies, the rate of growth will slow for some ‘household’ technologies such as DTH and Digital Cable."
The company actually predicts the penetration of digital cable and satellite will hit a ceiling of 58% to 60% by 2011.
However, while specifying that the future of TV is on demand and noting that cable VOD usage is trending up, the SRG report outlined a huge gulf between those over 30 and those under 30 years of age.
"(W)e believe this chasm between generations is wider today than at any other time in the past," reads the report, which notes: "The 12-29 generation is ‘always on’: 75% use Instant Messaging vs. only 28% of 30+; 70% with wireless use SMS vs. 25% of 30+.
"They are the new broadband generation: deeply engaged with the Internet – some say they ‘live on the Internet’ – downloading, surfing, consuming and creating content at rates much greater than older generations," it continues.
The implications, then, are that traditional assumptions about media use do not necessarily apply to younger generations. "On-demand is now a consumer expectation and a frame of reference among younger Canadians. We believe that they will carry those ‘on-demand’ expectations as they come of age and it will impact the choices they make in consuming media," says the SRG analysis.
However, while the young’uns shift with the technology, there has been little change in the media habits of older Canadians, 30+. "Our tracking is consistent with other research and indicates that the amount of time dedicated to television or radio has largely remained at consistent levels in the past 10 years in older age groups notwithstanding increasing time spent with the Internet," reads the report.
So, linear media isn’t dead yet. With the sheer number of baby boomers still around – and who aren’t going anywhere any time soon, "this suggests traditional ‘linear’ media will continue to co-exist with ‘on-demand’ media in the medium term," says the report. "It will take some time – about 10 years – before today’s young generation exerts its full influence as the dominant segment in the Canadian consumer landscape."
– Greg O’Brien
