Canadian over-the-top (OTT) subscription service revenue grew 15 per cent to reach $4.2 billion in 2024, and is forecasted to grow a further 15 per cent to $4.85 billion in 2025, according to the latest The Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato: OTT and TV report from the Convergence Research Group, based in Victoria, B.C.
Based on analysis of more than 55 OTT services (from more than 35 providers) led by Netflix, the report also predicts Canadian OTT subscription revenue will exceed annual TV subscription revenue in 2027.
Furthermore, based on 10 leading OTT providers, the average Canadian price increase across the providers was six per cent in 2024, and the price increase in 2025 is forecasted to be higher, according to the report. “That being said OTT offers with advertising represent a significant cost savings (on average 39% less) to similar offers without advertising,” reads a report summary provided to Cartt by Convergence Research.
The research group has also released its The Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato: Bundling, TV, Internet, Telephone, Wireless report for 2025, which estimates 2024 saw a decline of four per cent in Canadian cable, satellite, and telco TV subscribers, with similar declines forecasted through 2027.
In terms of revenue, this report estimates 2024 Canadian cable, satellite and telco TV subscription revenue declined five per cent to $6.51 billion, with five-per-cent per-annum declines on average forecasted through 2027.
“As illustrated in our Canadian Cord Cutter/Never Household Model, as of YE2024 we estimate 7.35 million Canadian households (46% of HHs) did not have a TV subscription with a Cable, Satellite, or Telco TV access provider, and forecast a rise to 54% YE2027,” a report summary says.
On a positive note, according to the report, “2019-2024 were banner years for Canadian residential broadband subscriber additions, with 2008 and prior being the last time Canada saw better additions. We forecast 2025-2027 will continue to see robust additions as well as sustained broadband revenue growth, however not as strong as the previous period.”
Looking at the wireless market, “2024 Canadian wireless service (weighted) ARPU growth was negative and wireless service revenue grew at a modest pace. We forecast continued ARPU pressure through 2027 and moderate annual subscriber additions,” says the report summary.
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