Revenues for over-the-top services, such as Netflix, grew 23 per cent to $3.3 billion in Canada last year and are expected to grow another 18 per cent this year, according to a May report from Convergence Research.
The analysis is based on over 50 OTT services from over 35 providers, including Amazon, Apple, DAZN, Fubo, Disney, Discovery, Hayu, HBO and Canadian programmers, according to the Canadian Couch Potato report, adding the revenues “will continue to mostly benefit non-Canadian players.” (Convergence Research said it does not provide the full reports to media, but provided highlights to Cartt.)
The Canadian TV subscriber landscape last year saw a two per cent decline, the report said, rising to an expected average of three per cent per annum declines from 2023 to 2025.
“Canadian TV subscribers and access revenue are currently not seeing as steep a rate of decline as the US, but this could change in the medium term – dependent on new or expanded OTT offers in Canada,” a report highlight said.
“We estimate 2022 Canadian Cable, Satellite, Telco TV access revenue declined 4% to $7.5 billion and forecast 3%/annum declines through 2025,” a highlight said.
Convergence said it estimated that 6.3 million Canadian households, or 40 per cent, did not have a TV subscription with a cable, satellite or telco TV provider, and it expects that number to rise to 48 per cent of households by the end of 2025.
The TV subscriber decline, however, is expected to be limited by an influx of new immigrants, which will also have a positive impact on growing broadband subscriber gains, another report snippet said. Canadian telecom executives have for years pointed to increasing immigration – an average of roughly 300,000 per year – as an important factor for their bottom lines.
Broadband subscriber additions are expected to continue to see “robust” growth and higher revenues, a report highlight said.
On wireless, last year saw average revenue per user grow by two per cent as wireless service revenue grew seven per cent, a report highlight said. The sector added roughly 1.8 million wireless subscribers that year, the largest since 2010, but subscriber growth forecasts for 2023-2025 “are less robust,” it added.
The report is based mainly on publicly available data, such as presentations, quarterly and annual financial reports, its own modelling and analysis, and company interviews, a company representative said.
