SAN JOSE, CA and TORONTO – Global mobile traffic will increase 66-fold between 2008 and 2013 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 131% over that same period, predicts a report from Cisco.
The Cisco Visual Networking Index Mobile Forecast for 2008-2013 says that these projections reflect a transformation in the fourth-generation (4G) mobile Internet that will “enable consumers to view more mobile video and access a variety of mobile broadband services”.
"The evolving 4G mobile Internet transformation is further diversifying how people access and experience the Internet and is causing an undeniable surge in bandwidth growth”, said Suraj Shetty, vice president of service provider marketing for Cisco, in the press release. “The projected increase in mobile rich media points to the inevitable transition to 4G. This will shift the industry’s focus toward all-IP networks."
Other key findings from the report are:
– Global mobile traffic will exceed two exabytes* per month by 2013.
– Global mobile data traffic reached one exabyte* per month in half the time that fixed data traffic did.
– Nearly 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013, and it will grow at a CAGR of 150% between 2008 and 2013.
– Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop air or data cards will constitute more than 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013.
– Latin America will have the strongest mobile growth at 166% CAGR, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 146%, though Asia-Pacific will account for one-third of all mobile data traffic by
2013.
* Note that an exabyte is equal to 1 billion gigabytes; 1,000 petabytes; or 250 million DVDs.
In related news, mobile TV and video solutions provider QuickPlay Media said that their most recent quarterly consumer consumption analysis found that mobile users in Canada and the US continue to show “tremendous interest” in streaming and downloading mobile TV and video content.
The findings, compiled from October 1 through December 31, 2008, saw the number of streams viewed in the fourth quarter of 2008 more than doubled from the previous quarter, (from a 27% increase from Q2 to Q3, to a 118% increase from Q3 to Q4). Also, the average number of downloads per user increased by approximately 50% over the same timeframe (an average of 6 per user versus 4.1 per user in Q3).
News, music video, most-watched television programs, and weather topped the list as “popular” live TV streaming genres, while video streaming favourites included music and movie previews. Music, sports and comedy were in the top categories for downloads.
“The positive results show mobile entertainment continues to be one of the bright spots in the current economy,” said QuickPlay Media’s president and CEO, Wayne Purboo, in the press release announcing the data. “Consumers remain willing to pay for high-quality entertainment services. In 2009, we expect to see mobile operators continuing to focus on mobile data services as it gives them an effective way to protect ARPU by delivering added value to their cost-conscious subscribers. For mobile TV and video services, this should result in increased promotional activity and more attractive pricing options that stimulate service trial and adoption.”
