TORONTO – The Internet of Things (IoT) is set to overtake mobile phones as the largest category of connected device by 2018, according to a new report by Ericsson.
The latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report says that the number of IoT connected devices is expected to grow 23% annually between 2015 and 2021, of which cellular IoT is forecast to have the highest growth rate. Of the 28 billion total devices that will be connected by 2021, close to 16 billion will be IoT devices.
Western Europe will lead the way in adding IoT connections, with the number of IoT devices in this market projected to grow 400% by 2021. This will principally be driven by regulatory requirements, such as intelligent utility meters and a growing demand for connected cars, including the EU e-call directive to be implemented in 2018.
"IoT is now accelerating as device costs fall and innovative applications emerge”, said Rima Qureshi, Ericsson’s SVP and chief strategy officer, in the report’s news release. “From 2020, commercial deployment of 5G networks will provide additional capabilities that are critical for IoT, such as network slicing and the capacity to connect exponentially more devices than is possible today."
Smartphone subscriptions will continue to increase and are forecast to surpass those for basic phones in Q3 this year, continues the report. Smartphone subscriptions will almost double from 3.4 billion to 6.3 billion by 2021.
The report says that devices that support 1 Gbps are expected in the second half of 2016, initially in markets such as Japan, U.S., South Korea and China, but rapidly spreading to other regions. Mobile users will enjoy extremely fast time to content thanks to this enhanced technology, which will enable up to two thirds faster download speeds compared with the fastest technology available today.
Also detailed in the report is a dramatic shift in teen viewing habits: use of cellular data for smartphone video grew 127% in just 15 months (2014-15). Over a period of four years (2011-15) there has been a 50% drop in the time teens spend watching TV/video on a TV screen, and in contrast, an 85% increase in those viewing TV/video on a smartphone. This, and the fact that the upcoming generation of mobile users are the heaviest consumers of data for smartphone video streaming (Wi-Fi and cellular combined), makes them the most important group for cellular operators to monitor.
Other highlights from the report include:
– 5G is expected to start more quickly than anticipated, and spectrum harmonization is needed between countries planning early roll-outs. This is in addition to the current process for WRC-19, which focuses on spectrum for commercial 5G deployments beyond 2020;
– Global mobile data traffic grew 60% between Q1 2015 and Q1 2016, due to rising numbers of smartphone subscriptions and increasing data consumption per subscriber. By the end of 2021, around 90% of mobile data traffic will be from smartphones;
– Mobile broadband subscriptions will grow fourfold in the Middle East and Africa between 2015 and 2021; mobile data traffic in India will grow fifteen times by 2021; and despite being the most mature market, U.S. mobile traffic will grow 50% in 2016.
