CHUM WILL BE SOLD. Shaw, too. Telus will buy Bell. Foreign ownership rules will be abolished. CRTC regs, too.
Now those are some seriously fearless predictions for the new year. They’re all poppycock, too. Made ’em up (although a couple could happen).
The slowdown time during the 14 days or so around Christmas and New Years (and Hanukkah, too), coupled with the fact that a new year is beginning, spawns all sorts of lists and predictions and reviews in the media. I didn’t want to be left out, but I didn’t want to try to add to the M&A rumors either because as I’ve said before, Canadian media companies are all voting-share controlled (except the telcos) so any sales can’t happen unless a very few people decide it’s time.
So, here’s a real list of things I think are coming in 2006:
Broadband TV and portable TV will grow much faster than most are saying publicly. CanWest Global CEO Leonard Asper said here he wants subscriber fees to be paid to broadcaster Global TV in order to boost its bottom line. However, it’s very unlikely he’s going to get it from the MSOs under the same structure as specialty channels. It’s a non-starter from a business and regulatory perspective.
So, one hopes he’s thinking beyond the typical business models and of how he can sell Global titles such as Falcon Beach, Global National and ET Canada to those with iPods or PSPs. Currently, all the U.S. TV content being made available to the owners of such little video devices isn’t available for sale here.
Canadian broadcasters should be stepping up to the plate. I’d watch Corner Gas, The Mercer Report or CityNews on a teeny screen. I hope some of them are at least talking with Apple by now.
As for broadband TV, it’s here already in many forms and will only grow. For a hundred U.S. bucks for the hardware and $30 a month, consumers can completely bypass the current TV system by getting a set top box from XTV, for example. Granted, it’s dozens of channels of porn, but it’s delivered right to a regular television via a broadband connection in Canada or the U.S.
But, looking south of the border again, where pay TV provider Starz is now providing 1,000 titles on demand, to any broadband connected device and VH1 is producing a new show just for its broadband portal VSpot, it’s easy to see that TV viewing will take place everywhere and anywhere.
And it’s going there very, very quickly – and those are just two examples of many moves Stateside. Canadian content owners have been slow out of the gate so far, but I think Canadian broadcasters will get into the game in a serious way in 2006. These new screens are an opportunity, not a threat, as long as Canadian broadcasters make strategic moves soon.
MSOs know on demand is the future. One of the first questions out of their mouths these days in meetings with broadcasters is: “what can you give me on demand?”
VOIP will continue to explode, thanks to low prices and those who really dislike their phone company. New VOIPsters will continue to come out of the woodwork but most of the gains will be made by the cable companies.
However, rapid growth often comes with hiccups and the VOIPsters (the third party ones especially) must make absolutely certain their systems are bullet-proof. A single 911 problem where someone gets emotional on TV or in the newspapers saying “my new VOIP phone couldn’t get me through to 911” or some such would be a major catastrophe.
Satellite radio will be a great niche product, kind of like satellite TV. It’s a good product, mind you, but still niche. I was thinking I’d want to subscribe to it but now that I’ve purchased an iPod and loaded it up, I’m not so sure. Maybe if sat rad is in my next car, whenever that might happen, I’ll subscribe.
I’d have to be a true audiophile, a bigger sports fan or a fan of Howard Stern to take the plunge. (
The reason why I think satellite radio will be more of a niche product is that when WiMax works (wireless broadband in every major centre) in 2007-08, people will be able to source every radio station in the world with a web stream – not to mention every bit of audio they would like to hear – from anywhere with so many devices.
And that will be a bigger threat to trad rad than sat rad.
The Commission will get much faster and adapt – because they have no choice. They have gotten quicker in some respects, turning around telco tariff applications in days and deploying expedited dispute resolution processes.
The slowness of the digital transition process on the TV side remains a problem – but that doesn’t all fall at the feet of the CRTC. The broadcasters have been dragging their feet on this one. The restructuring, first reported last month by www.cartt.ca, is one of several key steps towards the goal of responding more quickly to an ever-changing environment.
HDTV will continue to gather steam but over-the-air HD will only be available in major Canadian centres or from U.S. towns along the border. Cheaper TVs. More HD product. A far better picture. More consumer HD cameras. Everything is coming together for HD consumers.
OTA HDTV will not come to small-town Canada, however – and maybe not even medium-town Canada. Since most people get their TV via satellite or cable or telco, HD signals in places like Sudbury, Fort McMurray or maybe even as big as Saskatoon, will come only via fibre. Asper has already mused out loud on this issue and it was a big part of www.cartt.ca’s comprehensive special report on HDTV, released last month.
Wireless will continue on its enormous growth path, driven by a multitude of wireless apps. (Heck, I wrote much of this column on my blackberry). In 2005, we just passed the 50% penetration mark in Canada. Some European countries are 95%-plus, so we have a ways to go.
Exploding markets such as China, where there are about 400 million mobile subs, according to ZDNet, will continue to drive innovation through the roof and costs way down. I’m waiting on the first HD movies on demand to mobile phones. Sounds a little nutty now, but it’ll come (just not in 2006).
Marketing to multiple ethnic communities will grow enormously in importance. Rogers and Bell seem to know this (just look at the number of third language channels Rogers carries and both companies specifically and smartly target their marketing toward those communities). Other companies don’t seem to be catching onto this yet and if they don’t, they’re missing a lucrative piece of the pie.
Bell will make IPTV work, but it’s going to cost much more than they’ve said so far – which might be the reason they need $2 billion in the bank. According to Telephony Magazine, Verizon spent US$1 billion to build out its IPTV system with a fibre to the curb strategy which now passes three million homes, and to keep up the pace, will spend up to US$2 billion more in 2006.
To get its IPTV past everyone in Southern Ontario and Quebec, it will cost Bell nearly the same.
If you thought 2005 was crazy-busy, just wait until 2006 unwinds a bit more.
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