VICTORIA — Canadian OTT access revenue grew 30% to $2.7 billion in 2021 and is forecast to increase a further 26% to $3.4 billion in 2022 and to reach $4.6 billion in 2024, according to the latest “Couch Potato” reports from the Convergence Research Group.
This finding from Convergence’s The Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato: OTT and TV, May 2022 report is based on analysis of more than 55 OTT services (from over 35 providers), led by Netflix.
“Rising Canadian OTT access revenue will continue to mostly benefit non-Canadian players,” according to a summary provided to Cartt.ca.
“Canada is increasingly being impacted by the OTT war being waged by global, mainly US programmers and independent OTT providers. Although for programmers, Canada is a direct to consumer opportunity as well as an opportunity to sell to Amazon, Apple, DAZN, Fubo, Netflix, Canadian programmers and linear/OTT providers continue, at least in the short-medium run, to remain attractive,” the summary adds.
“DAZN, Disney+, Discovery+ & GolfTV, Fubo, NBCU’s hayu impinge on the Canadian TV/OTT model, on the other hand Warner’s HBO, Paramount’s 4 Star Treks/Showtime, Lionsgate’s Starz have multiplatform deals with Bell, as does NBCU’s Peacock with Corus.”
In the same report, as well as in Convergence’s separate The Battle for the Canadian Couch Potato: Bundling, Television, Internet, Telephone, Wireless, May 2022 report, Convergence says although Canadian TV subscribers and access revenue are not currently seeing as steep a rate of decline as in the U.S., “this could change in the medium term – dependent on new or expanded OTT offers in Canada.”
“We estimate 2021 Canadian Cable, Telco, Satellite TV access revenue declined 3% to $7.86 billion and forecast a 3% decline in 2022,” the summary says.
“We estimate 2021 saw a decline of 305,000 Canadian TV subscribers, 2020 a decline of 336,000 TV subscribers, and we forecast a decline of 316,000 in 2022, and higher declines in 2023 and 2024.”
Furthermore, as shown in Convergence’s “Canadian Cord Cutter/Never Household Model”, they estimate, as of YE2021, “38% of Canadian households did not have a TV subscription with a Cable, Satellite, or Telco TV access provider, and… forecast a rise to 46% YE2024.”
The years “2021, 2020 and 2019 have been banner years for Canadian residential broadband subscriber additions, with 2008 and prior being the last time Canada saw better additions. We project 2022-2024 will also be robust,” according to the report summary.
“Although Cable continues to lead on residential broadband market share, Telco has added on average well over double the subscribers as Cable 2019-2021. We forecast Telco will continue to well exceed Cable on annual additions through 2024.”
Looking at the Canadian wireless market, Convergence’s summary for its report on bundling says “After 2020 and 2021’s wireless service ARPU declines, we forecast ARPU growth 2022-2024. Wireless subscriber additions were strong in 2021, we forecast similar additions for 2022.”
To access executive summaries of Convergence’s May 2022 Couch Potato reports, including ones providing analysis of the U.S. market, please click here.
