TORONTO – While the subscription TV market share among traditional telcos is growing and revenue is stable, the TV market is beginning to see the overall effect of cord cutting, says a new report from Convergence Consulting.
Led by Bell and Telus, the company says the telcos’ Canadian TV market share will be at 21.5% at this year’s end (YE), up from 18.5% YE2014, where cable had 61.2% and satellite 20.3% then. It forecasts 59.4% and 19.1% YE2015, respectively. On the bottom line, however, Convergence estimates 2014 Canadian cable, satellite, telco TV access provider subscription revenue grew 2% to $9.1 billion
As well. “we estimate 2014 saw a decline of 95,000 Canadian TV subscribers, 2013 saw a decline of 13,000 TV subs, and we forecast a TV subscriber decline of 97,000 for 2015. 2007-2011 annual Canadian TV subscriber additions averaged 220,000,” reads the report, called The Battle for the North American Couch Potato, an annual report which breaks down the Canadian and U.S. video markets. The series has been published and updated since 2003.
While 2012 saw the start of the rise in non-TV subscriber households, as of YE2014 Convergence estimates 3.09 million Canadian households (21.6% of households) did not have a traditional linear TV subscription with any provider, up from 2.85 million (20.1% of Canadian households) YE2013. It forecasts 3.33 million (23% of Canadian households) by the end of 2015.
Canadian residential broadband subscriber additions were estimated at 408,000 at the end of 2014 while revenue grew 8% to $6.4 billion. The telcos continue to add more subscribers per year than cable, slightly reducing cable’s market share lead. The company also forecasts a 1% drop in cable market share versus the telcos, 2014-2017.
The residential wireline phone market continues to shrink as well dropping a further 7% in 2014, and the company is predicting another 7% drop for 2015. Canadian wireless-only households are pegged at 27.5% at the end of 2014 and it is forecasting a jump to 31% YE2015.
When it comes to new wireless entrants “we forecast Canadian wireless new entrants will have 6.6% of the market by YE2015, up from 5.8% year-end 2014. We forecast 2015 Canadian wireless service (weighted) ARPU will grow 1.3% in 2015, 2014 saw 2.3% growth. We forecast Canadian wireless subscriber smartphone penetration at 76% YE2015 up from 70% YE2014,” says the release.
For more, including U.S. figures, go to www.convergenceonline.com
