TORONTO – While more Canadians forgo paid TV subscriptions, the TV market share among traditional telcos continues to grow at the expense of cable and satellite, says a new report from Convergence Consulting.
The Battle for the North American (US/Canada) Couch Potato: Bundling, Television Internet, Telephone, Wireless predicts that telcos will hold a 25% share of the Canadian TV market at this year’s end (YE), up from 22% YE2015, where cable had 59% and satellite 19% then. It forecast 57% and 18% YE2016, respectively. On the bottom line, however, the report estimates 2015 Canadian cable, satellite, telco TV access provider subscription revenue grew 1% to $9.15 billion.
As well, the report estimates that 2015 saw a decline of 190,000 Canadian TV subscribers, compared to a 2014 decline of 105,000 TV subs, and predicts a TV subscriber decline of 191,000 for 2016.
While 2012 saw the start of the rise in non-TV subscriber households, as of YE2015, Convergence estimates 3.43 million Canadian households (23.7% of households) did not have a traditional linear TV subscription with any provider, up from 3.1 million (21.7% of Canadian households) YE2014. The report forecasts 3.76 million (25.8% of Canadian households) by the end of 2016. Cord cutter/never household additions are expected to rise from 333,000 in 2015 to 334,000 this year.
Canadian residential broadband subscriber additions were estimated at 368,000 at the end of 2015 while revenue grew 9% to $6.94 billion. The telcos continue to add more subscribers per year than cable, reducing cable’s market share lead. The report predicts a 1.4% drop in cable market share versus the telcos through 2018.
The residential wireline phone market continues to shrink, dropping a further 6% in 2015, and the report predicts another 6% drop for 2016. Canadian wireless-only households were pegged at 32.5% at the end of 2015 and the report forecasts a jump to 37% YE2016.
Canadian residential telephone lines declined an estimated 6% in 2015, 4.5% 2014, and the report forecasts 6% for 2016. Telco residential wireline telephone line loss in 2015 was 7%, whereas Cable residential wireline telephone line loss was 5%. The report says Cable represented 42% of residential wireline telephone subs YE2015.
When it comes to new wireless entrants, companies like Eastlink, Videotron and Wind are expected to have captured 7.2% of the market by YE2016, up from 6.1% year-end 2015. The report predicts that 2016 Canadian wireless service (weighted) ARPU will grow 1.6% in 2016, noting that 2015 saw 2.6% growth. In addition, Canadian wireless subscriber smartphone penetration will hit 76% YE2016, up from 73% YE2015.
For more, including U.S. figures, visit www.convergenceonline.com
