VANCOUVER – The transition to portable people meter technology will be expensive, so ideas such as fewer ratings periods and even no ratings at all for smaller markets were bounced about during Sunday afternoon’s radio ratings session at the Canadian Association of Broadcasters convention.
If there was a more apt title for a session on Sunday, we’re unaware of it. "The time is now: This is the plan". The gist? PPM is here. It’s ready. Advertisers want it. The question? How are we paying for it?
What does everyone agree on? Diaries don’t work.
Currently, most radio ratings are done through printed diaries sent in by listeners who log what stations they listen to, when and where they are. The PPM, a pager-like device, is something ratings panel members carry with them – and short of placing the device in a dock every night, that’s all they have to do. Radio stations emit a coded digital signal that only the PPM can pick up.
Arbitron’s SVP and top researcher, Bob Patchen laid out the massive PPM rollout coming in the States and its most advanced market, Houston, Texas. Patchen showed statistics that reveal people do carry their PPMs for an average of 14.5 hours a day and that there has been "no fatigue in the panel," he said, over the 15 months in the Houston market.
While the 18-34 demographic is still a difficult one to get proper ratings, using the PPM is far, far easier, than convincing young people to fill out a written diary.
Patchen added Arbitron will launch the PPM in New York and Los Angeles in 2007 with all of the top 10 American markets using the devices by fall 2008. The top 50 markets will have them by 2011.
While there are a number of new things the PPM is picking up on – such as dramatically larger weekend audiences than ever suspected – Patchen pointed out one very interesting aspect of PPM users: People don’t tune ads out.
Arbitron surveys say that ad buyers believe 63% of radio listeners change the station when they hear an ad. Of radio professionals, they say 68% of their listeners tune out during the commercial pods. Most of the respondents, said Patchen, assume most of these folks are in their car when in reality, 39% of PPM users are in their homes when listening – and therefore not likely to be zapping ads as the only 30% who are driving around.
So how many people tune out of commercial pods among PPM holders? 8%. On average, 92% of radio listeners do not change the station. Even in the sixth minute of a commercial break, 87.9% of the audience holds. Arbitron even has a web site about it: www.arbitron.com/92percent.
"Broadcasters should make advertisers more aware that radio is a commercial-friendly medium," said Patchen, whose figures also say that deployment of the PPM across the top 50 markets will result not only in better data, but at least US$150 million in increased spending on radio every year.
Doug Checkeris, managing partner of The Media Company (a buyer which bills in excess of $800 million a year) drove home the point that diaries must go by outlining the number of media choices consumers have and the amount of research his company does every day. He just can’t wait "months and months for (ratings) books to come in," he said. "You have to be much faster."
BBM Nielsen Media Research Jim MacLeod outlined BBM Canada’s success with PPM testing in Montreal and Quebec City calling the device carry times by panel members, "absolutely spectacular."
The PPM testing in Montreal also shows "teens haven’t stopped listening to radio. They’ve stopped filling in diaries," said MacLeod.
He outlined a plan to launch in French and English in Montreal by the first quarter of 2007, to be followed in mid-2008 by Toronto and Vancouver and in early 2009 by Calgary and Edmonton.
Thing is, this ratings upgrade is going to cost millions – up to $5 million more than it does now to do diaries. However, if BBM can convince local TV to come on board, the cost increase falls dramatically. As well, added MacLeod, if BBM is even going to begin in Montreal, it needs the majority of broadcasters to sign on for at least five years and at least "tacit approval" of moving PPM into Toronto and Vancouver. "We need an overwhelming majority of broadcasters in each market in order to do it," he added.
MacLeod insisted the move must be made – and as quickly as possible. "No one believes diaries can deliver," he added. Especially when a dip as small as a point in the Toronto market can mean a million in revenue losses for a station group. The PPM "eliminates bounce," said MacLeod.
Corus Radio president John Hayes and Rogers Radio president Gary Miles indicated their companies are behind PPM and that it’s really a matter of finding the combinations of capital and cost savings to do it.
Miles suggested dropping ratings for the bottom 35% of markets, or cutting back diary ratings in markets out of the top six to twice a year, however, no decisions have been made.
"Corus is a supporter of PPM," said Hayes who, as a member of the BBM radio board, listed Astral Media, Standard and CHUM as backers, too. "On balance, this is good for radio
"I don’t think there’s any choice," added Golden West CEO Elmer Hildebrand.
While some station owners/managers fear what the PPM might say about their station, not to mention the adjustment to monthly ratings and all the new data that will come with PPM, "the greatest danger to your businesses is not starting," added Checkeris.
