TRACKING TRENDS REMINDS ME of what Henry Ford said when he was quizzed about popular trends and his new Model T, "If I had asked people about what they really wanted they would have said a faster horse!" But here at the Banff World Media Fest there are some bankable trends emerging.
First, the rise of the multi-gadget digital viewer is a hyper-fact, and very often creators enjoy working with niche media and OTT platforms for the freedom and multi-platform thrill and innovation of it all. However, there is still nothing quite like broadcast television for the immediate future.
Second, broadcast TV and over-the-top (OTT) are at war. They can't even agree on what constitutes a hit, nor on what data to make public. Is House of Cards really a hit? Prove it!
Third, event TV is a trendy talking point but old news. Roots was event television folks.
Fourth, documentaries will continue to struggle. They need a new economic model, and one-offs are just too tough a sell.
Fifth, you haven't seen anything yet when it comes to product placement. Top Chef Canada and others are going to slop all over the place to assure those Bounty towels are part of the wipe-up. Show pitches will continue to come in ripe with product and service placement ideas… and it will only accelerate. Of course there will be limits. For example, there may not be too many Kaopectate Run of The Week placements on CFL or NFL broadcasts…
However, CTV and others will be launching shows like The Social chock-a-block with placed products – and it will get more and more sophisticated; both in how placements are imbedded in the program but also in driving viewers online to that second screen.
Sixth, sports will still lead the way in fan/audience engagement and those second screen interactions. Indeed, that's probably a natural trend in that sports are already lean-forward experiences. But as this develops it will, by definition, recalibrate PVR usage.
Seventh, non-scripted reality fare will continue to shift from being celebrity driven to being “weirdo” driven. Unknown but irresistibly odd characters will increasingly be the darlings of casting directors. In that context, those peculiar discoveries, and the programs built around them, will just get bigger and wilder.
And soon, I think people are really going to get hurt.
Sure, shiny floor game shows like Jeopardy will continue to exist, but cable and specialty channels are feeling the love more and more for outlandish characters, meaning Storage Wars and Pawn Stars are just baby stuff.
Eighth, the NFB will spend more time trying to agree on a brand name for its new documentary SVOD private-public, global joint venture than it will in nailing down a credible business plan before service launch in 2014.
Ninth, CRTC chairman Jean-Pierre Blais will continue to keep his word and keep his pace. He said during his speech to conference delegates that in the last 12 months he and his other commissioners sat through 226 hours of hearing testimony, and read almost 178,000 submissions. Blais is setting a regulatory record of over 400 decisional meetings over 365 calendar days.
Is this guy on Red Bull or what?
Plus he means what he says about "regulating for the right reasons; and about citizen and consumer engagement. This new CRTC will, under his digitally aware stewardship, trend towards promotion over knee-jerk protection.
And I predict that he is the pivot person for a better balanced Canadian media ecology.
Former ZoomerMedia TV president and CEO Bill Roberts is covering the Banff World Media Festival as a reporter/commentator for Cartt.ca.
