LAS VEGAS – The last decade in consumer electronics (CE) has been one dominated by the digital transition of music, film, and tape. The next era in CE will be characterized by leveraging the potential of these digital devices by creating vastly improved user interfaces (UI).
This was one of the key predictions made by Shawn DuBravac, the Consumer Electronic Association’s chief economist, during the CES 2012 pre-show press event in Las Vegas on Sunday.
Ironically it was Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer who made a very similar prediction two full years ago as the keynote speakers at CES 2010. At the time Ballmer said we would look back on 2010 as the year “we expanded beyond the mouse and keyboard and started incorporating more natural forms of interaction such as touch, speech, gestures, handwriting, and vision – what computer scientists call the "NUI" or natural user interface.”
Ballmer at the time was also attempting to hype Microsoft’s Project Natal" which was developing sophisticated sensors and software to track body movements, recognize faces, and respond to spoken directions. That project turned into a product called Kinect, a sensor bar that attaches to Microsoft’s Xbox 360 video game console, enabling users to interact with video games by waving their arms and hands rather than having to hold a controller. Kinect went on to become the fastest-selling consumer electronics device on record. Yes, even topping Apple’s iPad.
It’s worth noting because two years later, with the CEA’s chief economist declaring 2012 to be the year of UI, Microsoft has joined Apple by deciding it won’t be around for the next CES. Not surprisingly, the CEA, happy to comment on the future of CE, did not bring up how Microsoft’s planned exit from the massive convention will impact their annual show but focused on the some 20,000 new product announcements to be made at this CES, where attendance is expected to be near 150,000.
And while DuBravac did not mention Microsoft’s planned exit, he did declare that the computer itself was dead. He argued that because smartphones, tablets, and even TVs have adopted powerful CPU technologies they have in essence moved the computer throughout the home. With all this processing capability it’s now up to CE companies to leverage that potential with better apps. “Anyone who has ever tried to read email on a 55-inch HDTV knows it’s not a pleasant experience,” DuBravac told an overflowing room of reporters.
He explained that it’s the CE companies which develop UIs and products that best “scale” to specific needs of consumers who will be in the best position to cash in on the $1 trillion CE market. In particular, DuBravac says it will be the smartphone and tablet market that will continue to be the major growth areas.
However, the European financial crisis, said Steve Koenig, the CEA's director of industry analysis, will continue to hammer the CE industry in Europe where the market there continues to contract. 2012 global growth in CE will largely depend on the continued demand from developing countries like China, Brazil and India. Developing countries will account for 46% of global gadget sales in 2012, up from 37% four years ago. Their estimate of 2012 global electronics sales, at $1.038 trillion, represents growth of 5% from last year. That compares to growth of 8% from 2010 to 2011.
The CEA and its partner, GfK Boutique Research, expect that while forecast growth in spending on smartphones (up 69%) and tablets (up 22%) will continue to be strong in 2012, both will begin to slow compared to 2011. Tablet sales forecast is for 96 million units, revised up from the previous forecast of 88 million units. But sales could exceed 100 million units, Steve Bambridge of GfK Boutique Research.
Finally, television set growth is slowing to 1% this year from 2% last year, at roughly 262 million units.
John Bugailiskis, Cartt.ca’s consumer electronics editor, is in Las Vegas this week covering the Consumer Electronics Show.
