The next few years could be tough ones for the cellular base station equipment and semiconductor industry, says recent research conducted by In-Stat.
The high-tech market research firm predicts base station semiconductor revenue will decline an average of 12.3% per year between 2008 and 2012 now that the recent “unusual” infrastructure growth spurt which saw operators around the world spending on new 3G equipment, has cooled. The slowing worldwide economy will also contribute to the decline.
"Many operators have spent heavily on 3G upgrades and they are now waiting for service revenues from these networks before they invest more," says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst. "In addition, the number of subscribers in many areas is reaching saturation, with former double-digit subscriber growth now running in the mid-to-low single-digits. The global recession will also have an impact. Although most people aren’t likely to part with their cell phones, they may replace them less often, and reduce services they don’t find value in or can’t afford."
The In-Stat research also forecasts:
– Base station semiconductor revenue will drop from $7.2 billion in 2007 to $4.6 billion in 2008.
– Of the main technology types, WCDMA is the only technology expected to yield semiconductor revenue growth between 2008 and 2012.
