FOR SEVERAL YEARS, CANADA’S TV launch season has followed a logical path, with the odd new bit added here or there to spice up the mix. This year, the industry expected broadcasters to introduce new shows, dangle tasty bits of multi-platform potential, parade the talent, wow the buyers and let the 2006 upfront selling frenzy begin.
Observers could then cue the standard questions: will Global build its list of Top-20 gains at CTV’s expense? Will CBC’s new-look programming represent an alternative or even an addition to hockey as a must-buy? Will specialties and digi-channels continue to grow? And will CHUM’s first-ever rack of Big-three network simulcasts finally deliver the Top 20 hit advertisers crave?
For more than a month after CTV’s June 5 fall programming launch to media buyers, the industry followed the script. Even the July 12 announcement that CTV parent Bell Globemedia had purchased CHUM Limited should not have disrupted media buying since the sale can’t be finalized without CRTC approval. Sources at CHUM affirm it’s business as usual.
But in a selling season expected to bolster Global’s comeback momentum – with new, big buzz dramas such as CBS’s Shark, starring James Woods, Kidnapped, starring Tim Hutton and Dana Delaney from NBC, and ABC’s Brothers & Sisters, starring Calista Flockhart and Rachel Griffiths, on offer – BGM’s increased buying power may prove to daunt CTV’s remaining competitors.
Even before BGM announced the CHUM acquisition, some media buyers noted a “there’s no one else but us” attitude emanating from CTV’s fall launch. Florence Ng, VP broadcast investments at ZenithOptimedia, said, “They want to control the pace of how fast (programming) would move.”
She said CTV initially announced it would raise rates for clients who had not booked ads by June 12. Later, she added the broadcaster said network advertisers could access the best rate card if they booked non-cancelable ads by “D-Day”, June 16.
CTV declined requests for an interview with its sales staff. Canadian broadcasters typically won’t reveal the size of their rate hikes, but again this year, Global, CBC, CHUM and Alliance Atlantis say inventory is moving well, with CHUM reveling in its network simulcasts.
Ng says ad rates are up between 5% to 10%, depending on the property while, at the same time, “some ratings have gone down.” But Dennis Dinga, VP, director of broadcast buying at M2 Universal, says he agrees with a suggestion that Canadian increases “would be in the same range as the U.S., give or take a couple of percent here or there.” According to a June 16 report in Variety, rates rose between 2% to 4% for leaders ABC, FOX and CBS.
With the majority of the top shows in hand last year, expectations are that CTV will remain number one this year. The net showcased four new dramas and three comedies at its launch. Dramas include: Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip, starring Matthew Perry and Brad Whitford, from West Wing creator Aaron Sorkin; Jerry Bruckheimer’s Justice, starring Victor Garber; actioner Smith, which will feature Ray Liotta; and serial thriller The Nine. Comedies include the much-hyped 30 Rock, starring Saturday Night Live’s Tina Fey, and Alec Baldwin; The Class, from Friends creator David Crane; and Let’s Rob.
Although CTV’s increased station count may make its buying power even more formidable next year, this season, says Dinga: “Global will definitely capture some more Top 10/Top 20 programming. But CTV will still be number one.” This is high praise for the potential of the 14 new dramas and eight new comedies Global will program in 2006-07, given Dinga’s 2005 conviction that, “based on what Global bought this year, there’s no way they can take one little nip out of CTV.”
This time out, by contrast, he reckons Global emerged from the L.A. Screenings with the top half dozen new U.S. dramas. Along with the three described above, these are: FOX’s Vanished, about the disappearance of a politician’s beautiful wife; NBC’s The Black Donnellys, a N.Y. crime drama from the creators of the film Crash; and Six Degrees, an ABC drama about the chain of acquaintanceship that eventually links six young people in New York.
“What’s new is just the depth of product available this year. There’s this increased interest in hour-long dramas,” says Kathy Gardner, senior VP, research and corporate promotion with CanWest Media Sales in Toronto.
She adds that new and returning shows are all moving well. “The writing is very strong and the networks bring stability (to the creative).” Global can promote its new titles while capitalizing of the success of House and Prison Break, both regulars in last year’s Top 20.
Asked if he thinks House can retain the ratings strength it built last summer in reruns, and with new episodes through the fall season, Dinga quipped, “Nobody will even mention House (this season). It will be just, Shark, Shark, Shark, Shark, Shark.”
Gardner would be delighted to see Shark become a break-out hit in its Thursday-at-10 slot. “ER has been wavering. Without A Trace is moving to Sunday at 10 in the U.S. and we’re putting it on the shelf.” Ng, however, is dubious. Among Global’s many new titles, “there isn’t any one that strikes us as a runaway hit.”
As much as James Woods in Shark might skew male, Brothers & Sisters will find the female 25-54 audience, Gardner says. Sundays at 10, it may do well: Calista Flockhart “is not Ally McBeal in this. It’s a drama about family.” It’s in simulcast and is “following humour,” as Dinga points out, and going up against a pre-release of Studio 60 on CTV, and Without A Trace in the U.S.
Ng wonders why Global would shelve Trace. “They need every bit of programming they can get, so why not move it to CH? If Brothers & Sisters succeeds, they can charge more, but they’re losing revenue by keeping movies on CH.”
Although Global and CTV used to license the vast majority of programming from ABC, CBS, NBC and lately FOX, CBC has returned to that turf as of July 18 via the controversial simulcast of The One with ABC, and CHUM scored four drama simulcasts, including three for the fall and one that arrive mid-season.
According to René Bertrand, executive director of media sales for CBC TV and Newsworld, the arrival of The One: Making a Music Star, offers the pubcaster multiple opportunities. It can attract a central advertiser, the way “L’Oreal owned Canadian Idol,” he says. The One’s format is a proven hit both overseas and in French Canada, where he says, “It was the number one program in its final episode in French on TVA.”
Furthermore, he points out, The One fits with the new direction at CBC, articulated by CBC TV Exec VP Richard Stursberg, who says the Corp is re-emphasizing its commitment to Canadian drama and, in looking for a better (read: younger) mix of audiences, recognizes that “factual entertainment – some call it reality programming – is here to stay.” The fact that producers Endemol USA selected the popular host of CBC’s The Hour, George Stroumboulopoulos, as host, is a major bonus.
While Dinga agrees some of CBC’s changes might support the pubcaster’s claim that buyers and viewers can “expect more,” Ng sees CBC as being consistent. She wonders if CBC offers the “right environment” for a reality music show, adding that these programs are everywhere now, especially in summer.
(Dismal opening ratings – just 150,000 viewers, according to BBM figures – for The One has likely dampened spirits at CBC and perhaps proved Ng correct.)
CBC will follow up The One with The Canadian One, launching this fall, along with: a slate of new dramas; a new sitcom; the 10-hour doc series Hockey: A People’s History; the reality show Dragon’s Den, in which entrepreneurs pitch business ideas to venture capitalists; and a live quiz show called Test the Nation: National IQ Test.
Bertrand was not bothered by the cancellations of This is Wonderland and Da Vinci’s City Hall. “This year changes our focus. The programs removed were in decline.”
He says Intelligence, an hour-long crime drama from Da Vinci’s co-producer Chris Haddock, will draw advertisers, although in the 9 p.m. Tuesday slot, it’s up against House on Global and CTV’s Criminal Minds. An eight-hour hostage drama, October, 1970, will kick off the 8 p.m. slot on Thursdays (and when it ends CBC will sub in Opening Night) and fight for breath against Grey’s Anatomy in pre-release on CTV, Survivor on Global and Simon Cowell’s new music show Duets, in simulcast from FOX on Citytv.
Bertrand is also keen on the half-hour sitcom Rumours, about the sexy staff members at a women’s magazine, which, at 9 p.m. Mondays, has to contend with Vanished in simulcast on Global and a pre-release of Smith, a new drama on CTV. Strangely, Rumours is followed at 9:30 by 72 Hours, a forensic docudrama.
An international co-production airing in the shadowy corner of 9 p.m. Fridays may be CBC’s best shot, apart from Hockey Night in Canada, at competing in its timeslot. Jozi-H is an hour-long drama about medical staff at a Johannesburg hospital and it will compete with strength from Global in Las Vegas, City’s ABC simulcast of Men In Trees and Close to Home on CTV.
At CHUM, “our schedule’s being well-received,” says David Kirkwood, EVP sales and marketing. Interviewed the day before the BGM/CHUM announcement, he spoke candidly about trying to be “reasonable about the (ratings) estimates on these programs. There’ve been some positive remarks about Ugly Betty (homely woman gets job at fashion magazine, from Salma Hayek) and Men In Trees (spurned fiancée played by Anne Heche moves to boonies and sets up shop as a relationship coach).
“They got a good response at the (Broadcast Research Council) dinner. We were on the approved list. There are advertisers that look to us for something a little different and some consistency. Our movies have been there forever. They’re not Top 10 programs, but they’re consistent. They balance the (gambling and risk) of the network shows. Betty and Men are only 10% of our schedule. One of our competitors said Men In Trees was a refreshing change from some of the action-based, somewhat violent shows (like) 24, Vanished, Kidnapped.”
With all the new choices on conventional TV this year, what’s happening on specialty channels? For years, specialties have made big gains at the expense of conventional colleagues, but the question of whether this continues in 2006 sparks a raging debate.
Alliance Atlantis CEO Phyllis Yaffe is unequivocal. Commenting on the company’s results for the quarter ended May 31, as the broadcasting division prepared to begin its upfront sales, Yaffe said, “Our broadcasting business recorded solid gains in advertising and subscriber revenue, and for the second successive quarter, our digital channels made a positive contribution to EBITDA.”
Alliance Atlantis’s new annual report, covering calendar 2005, says “total ad revenues were up 19.9% for the year ended Dec. 31, 2005. Audience growth was particularly notable for Showcase, Food Network Canada and HGTV Canada.”
AA is betting this trend continues, given its channels are launching 87 new series this fall, nearly one-third Canadian-made. Errol Da-Re, EVP sales, says selling season started at the end of April and “is off to a tremendous start….We’re looking at a strong upfront but it’s too early to tell if it’s trending ahead” of last year, he says, adding the channels typically sell out their fall inventory and he anticipates the same result this year.
But Ng argues the days of big increases in year-over-year specialty investment are over. “The shift has slowed down big-time… Investment in the digital networks could go up a little bit – to increase efficiency, or because of the fit with (any given programming) environment, on a client-by-client basis.”
CHUM’s Kirkwood, however, maintains that the migration to specialties continues. “If there was a slowdown last year, it was money going back to hockey and… specialty channels were the beneficiaries of (the NHL strike), except TSN. So if you’re looking year-over-year, the prognosticators are looking for larger growth in specialty channels… It’s growth on a smaller level (because there’s a larger number of specialty channels now selling ads), but it’s still larger growth.”
Da-Re agrees, saying he doesn’t see “any movement away from our share of the sales market.” And there, he’d be on side with Dinga, who says, “spending on specialty and digital is increasing on an annual basis and overall spending on conventional continues to decline marginally on a yearly basis.”
Susan Tolusso is a freelance writer and editor, based in Ottawa.
To comment on this or any other story, please drop us a line at editorial@cartt.ca.
