At the end of 2008, only 11% of worldwide wireless subscriptions were 3G, but according to research by In-Stat, by the end of 2013, the percentage of 3G and 4G subscriptions will reach 30%.
But worldwide inter-operability for microwave access (WiMAX) still has a ways to go, and will have to prove itself over the next couple of years, particularly in light of the rise of high speed packet access (HSPA) and long term evolution (LTE) technology, the research report continues.
In-Stat says that it expects mobile WiMAX to be attractive in developing countries and remote locations in which fixed broadband networks are not yet deployed, but it remains to be seen whether it will be competitive in locations with existing 3G cellular and fixed broadband networks.
"Based on contract awards, WiMAX deployments are remaining resilient in the face of the economic slowdown, although some operators are slowing the deployment rate," said In-Stat analyst Daryl Schoolar, in the press release announcing the research. "The WiMAX equipment heavyweights of Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola and Samsung are benefitting from the trend. Other vendors to watch include Cisco, Huawei and ZTE."
The research, called ‘4Q08 3G/4G Deployment and Subscriptions Database’, also found that:
– 802.16e, the mobile standard for WiMAX, has been mainly deployed for fixed and nomadic services. Clearwire, Korea Telecom, and UQ of Japan are among a few notable exceptions that are embracing 802.16e for mobile data applications.
– There were 132 announced deployments in the fourth quarter of 2008, consisting of 95 HSPA, 18 WCDMA, 12 mobile WiMAX, six CDMA EV-DO, and one TD SCDMA.
– Based on the contract award activity over the past few quarters, In-Stat expects most of the deployments through new live networks to be WiMAX and HSPA. There has been a significant slowdown in contracts for WCDMA and CDMA EV-DO equipment.
