Annual Deloitte Predictions says 5G will come on quick
TORONTO – “Machine learning is at an exponential tipping point – and I hate talking like that, and never talk like that, but just this once I will – because this time it’s true,” says Deloitte’s Duncan Stewart.
The director of TMT Research for Deloitte Canada said in an interview Monday prior to the release of the company’s 17th annual Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions report today that the data shows machine learning tests, pilot projects and deployments – and all that can bring – will double next year and then double again by 2020.
Advancements in machine learning technology include data science automation and a reduced need for training data as well as new chips in both data centres and mobile devices, says the report. The advancements will help establish the foundation, which will over the near term make machine learning mainstream across industries where organizations have limited talent, infrastructure and data to train models.
So what does that mean for telecom operators? So much new traffic that networks will be overwhelmed? No, says Stewart. Just the opposite. The benefits of the artificial intelligence will bring down costs, push technology further to the edge and enable ongoing growth. For example, “many of the chips for data centres that are coming out – next generation chips – use much less, like 90-99% less – power than the old generation,” he explained.
Plus, the coming advancements in smart phones and other devices, thanks to this AI, means consumer devices themselves will host the machine learning tasks, which will impact networks less. “Through both a combination of software, and especially dedicated hardware, we now have on board machine learning. Think about it as pre-processing,” Stewart said.
These new devices will be smarter, faster, easier on battery power and lighter on data demands. They’ll have the ability to do real time translation, to cite one example, with potentially no network requirements. This means there will be a serious new opportunity for carriers and manufacturers in renewed smart phone upgrades, but they won’t be about a higher resolution screen or better camera or bigger phone. Instead, it will be in the artificially intelligent chipsets and software, “the invisible upgrade,” he added. The report predicts 1.85 billion smart phones will be sold, globally, per year by 2023, a 19% increase over 2018, driven also by the increased uptake among older users.
Machine learning, according to Deloitte, is an artificial intelligence, or cognitive technology that enables systems to learn and improve from experience – by exposure to data – without being programmed explicitly. The company’s report predicts that by the end of 2018, “more than 25% of all chips used to accelerate machine learning in a data centre will be field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). These chips, in addition to GPU (graphics processing units) chips that were the main choice in the past will dramatically increase the use of machine learning, enabling applications to consume less power while being more responsive, flexible and capable.”
SUCH ADVANCED CAPABILITIES will only grow the number of people who opt for mobile-only Internet. While many of us assume most Canadians have some sort of home, wired, fast internet with large or no data caps. Deloitte’s research points to a surprisingly large cohort who are mobile only customers, who access the internet solely via their smartphones.
“If I am mobile only, I am not going to watch your 20 minute 4K video because that’s half my monthly bandwidth cap.” – Duncan Stewart, Deloitte
“The news that 25% of Canadians don’t (have a wired home internet connection in 2018), is freaking a lot of people out because these tend to be people who are more rural, younger and lower income and those aren’t necessarily the people in the C-suite, so there’s a lot of misperception out there about the mobile only Canadian,” Stewart said in our interview.
“To be clear, the 20-25% of Canadians are the people you’ll frequently see watching YouTube or Netflix in a coffee shop. Why are they watching it there? Because that’s where the bandwidth is.” When online, these folks are forced to “sip with a straw” when on their mobile networks because they don’t want to go over their data plan because they likely can’t afford to. “And, if I am mobile only, I am not going to watch your 20 minute 4K video because that’s half my monthly bandwidth cap,” he added.
However, 5G wireless is coming and the capabilities which that new technology will bring in the next two to three years may render data caps obsolete according to the most recent tests of the high frequency fixed wireless millimetre wave next generation of wireless, added Stewart.
“The percentage of people in North America who are wireless only will rise as a result of millimetre wave,” he explained. “This will not be sipping through a straw, these are gigabit speeds. Data will either be unlimited or effectively unlimited, it will be just as fast as cable or more, just as fast as telco or more, just as fast as fibre or more.”
Deloitte predicts 30% to 40% of the North American population will opt for wireless only internet by 2022, a figure that was just 10% in 2013. Other advanced countries with denser populations will see far fewer mobile only internet households even with 5G deployments because of the ease of deploying fibre, while millimetre wave 5G technology will help developing countries “leap into the 21st century,” said Stewart.
Trials with telcos such as Verizon (which, like Google, has pulled back on its huge fibre to the home pushes) have shown “radio waves are going further, faster, better cheaper,” than hoped, meaning 5G “is something that’s going to come real fast.”
Watch Cartt.ca later today for a breakdown of Deloitte’s TV and radio predictions.
